January 20, 2017


Well, there's been another peaceful change of presidential administrations. My hopes are not exactly high, but I also have confidence we'll get through this. The new guy doesn't excite me with his competence, but we've had no few prior presidents that couldn't carry out the law and/or didn't care to, and we've muddled through.

When I say this on Facebook, I get attacked for "showing my privilege". Sure, I get that- I'm middle-class monogamous white straight cisgender male native-born protestant healthy & employed. (I'm not sure if being a veteran is a plus or a minus in the privilege score some people like to calculate.) I think I'm viewing this as a historian, not a MCMWSCMNBPHE scumbag, but who knows.

Here's the thing, though: I'm going to make some predictions. Feel free to grade me on them in four more years.

  1. Roe v. Wade does not get overturned. First, Trump is personally pro-choice. Second, polling shows people freak out when it looks like it'll get overturned, including people necessary for the R's in congress to get reelected. So while there will be laws picking at the edges, abortion will remain legal.
  2. Gay marriage will remain legal. Again, overwhelming popular support, even more so than abortion. And the Supreme Court, even with new conservative members, hates to go back on itself. (Stare decisis.)
  3. I'm less certain about the Affordable Care Act. Congress is intentionally painting themselves into a corner to replace the popular parts, but the popular parts aren't separable from the unpopular parts. If enough of their constituents lose medical care they will either panic or get thrown out of office. So I expect there will be something closely resembling Obamacare in five years. It will probably be rough on some people over the next two years though.
  4. We won't go to war with another major power. (E.g. China or Russia). Trump's easy to manipulate. His advisors will flatter him into visions of getting a copy of Obama's and Roosevelt's Nobel Prizes if things ever get too heated, plus the warning that his overseas property would get seized or destroyed.
  5. A general trade war is unlikely. We'll probably get something like the Chicken Tax, i.e. highly distortionary tariffs on a small sector of the economy. I suspect we'll be the first major nation to sign a new trade treaty with a post-Brexit UK, because Trump likes the cut of their jib.
  6. Trump only serves a single term. First, he might get impeached. Seriously! He has no friends in Congress, but his vice-president has plenty. It looks to be easy to find grounds to do so- start with the Emoluments Clause and go from there. If, on the other hand, he completes his term, the Democrats are likely to take either the House or the Senate during the mid-term elections, if for no other reason than the president's party almost always loses seats in the midterm. He's not likely to enjoy facing an explicitly hostile Congress, and will choose not to seek re-election in order to spend more time with his family.
There you go, those are my predictions. I guess we can check back in four years.

Posted by: Boviate at 04:41 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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